When you heard that Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash this week, what did you think? I couldn’t help a first thought that he met his just deserts. It’s hard to like the leader of a mercenary organisation helping Russia invade Ukraine. And, when you organise a mutiny against your corrupt employer who has a history of murdering those who cross him, what do you expect to happen?

What exactly happened to the plane, in which Prigozhin and nine other people were travelling from Moscow to St Petersburg, will likely remain a mystery – deliberate mystery surrounds both Prigozhin and Putin (as the likely source of any assassination order against Prigozhin). Why something might have happened to Prigozhin is a lot more clear. After taking the Ukraine city of Bakhmut for Russia with his mercenary forces, Prigozhin led a brief mutiny against Putin in which he accused Putin and his Defense Minister of incompetence in the fighting. He demanded the Defense Minister step down, seized a military headquarters in (Russian) Rostov-on-don and the advanced troops  towards Moscow. Twenty-four hours later, in a deal with Putin brokered by the Belarus President, Prigozhin backed down and agreed to be exiled to Belarus in exchange for any criminal charges being dropped.

The day before the plane crash, Prigozhin was supposedly in Africa publicly declaring his forces were there helping Russia remain a great nation (although no one could confirm the videos were actually shot in Africa). Then the plane Prigozhin was on crashed on a flight between Moscow and St Petersburg…he was neither in Africa nor Belarus.

There is speculation as to whether the plane was blown up by an onboard explosive (Western intelligence agencies collectively believe this is most likely) or a surface to air missile. There is little belief it fell apart without assistance – the type of small jet Prigozhin was on has had only one recorded incident – a mid-air collision with another plane in which the jet survived. Wings pretty much never fall off planes flying at cruise altitude  – this is what appears to have happened based on videos of the plane (why would anyone be taking videos of a small plane flying at cruise altitude?).

Why might we have ­thoughts that Prigozhin's death in a revenge killing is acceptable? Because revenge is a pretty basic human instinct, hardwired in our lizard brains. I investigated the psychology of revenge online – it turns out many humans enjoy contemplating revenge although few enjoy the experience after­­ successfully carrying out revenge. That’s pretty odd and psychologists struggle to explain it. One theory is that the act of revenge elevates the negative experience in memory so we rehash the wrong, rather than getting over it. Hmmm…maybe.

Another explanation of the appeal of revenge, and its hardwiring, is that revenge is necessary to keep order if society is not operating under the Rule of Law. If there isn’t a justice system, the best way to keep people in line is to keep them scared and revenge is an important part of keeping people scared. There would seem to be little question that Putin operates outside the Rule of Law, therefore it is logical that revenge is an important part of how he maintains his position and control.

However, it is pretty frightening that a major world power is led by someone who regularly uses revenge to eliminate people who he sees as threatening, and sees himself as outside of the Rule of Law. What is even more frightening is that he is not alone – such behaviour appears to be propagating globally. Donald Trump also thinks himself outside the Rule of Law – he tried to manipulate election results and then to overturn the democratic selection of a President when he lost the election (inciting the attack on the Capitol Building). This week, in a Republican presidential candidate discussion, six out of the eight Republican Party candidates said, if they aren't selected themselves, they will support Trump in the next US election, even if he is convicted by a court for election racketeering (he is currently on trial in Georgia)! Does this mean the majority of the Republican Party no longer believes in the Rule of Law, either?

Putin and Trump both belong to the ‘strong man who will save the country’ category of politician, as do Xi Jinping (China), Tayyip Erdogan (Turkey), Viktor Orban (Hungary), Daniel Ortega (Nicaragua), Mohammed bin Salman (Saudi Arabia). Perhaps we should thank our lucky stars that, as yet, New Zealand is not breeding such politicians – Chris Hipkins, Christopher Luxton, David Seymour, Winston Peters, James Shaw, Marama Davidson…none of them fit that bill. However, maybe it is only a matter of time, depending on the rate of propagation…